Form, breeding of new horses for Shatin May 19

Eleven horses will have their first Hong Kong starts at Shatin on Saturday, and others will be having only their second or third runs. Below is a summary of the breeding, past performances (if any) and the trial performances of these horses. Statistics indicate that, regardless of their odds, particular attention should be paid to young horses that had fair or good form overseas before coming to Hong Kong and who are entered in Class 4 races, particularly over 1400m. Note also that Shatin has been soaked by steady rain, at times heavy, on Friday. While the Shatin turf recovers very quickly and the rain is forecast to ease tonight and a mainly dry day is expected on Saturday, the going is likely to be at least good-to-yielding. RACE 1 Champion Ranger: New Zealand 3YO by Falkirk, sire of Fay Fay (6 HK wins) etc, out of the Star Way mare Nimue, New Zealand champion 3YO filly  and an 8-time winner from 11 starts, including two Gr.1s. Nimue is a full sister to Smiling Like, a 7-time winner from 2000m to 3200m  that was voted NZ Champion stayer. Champion Ranger was well out and  shared early lead in Dragon Keeper's 800m trial May 8, raced in centre of track; not asked to respond when passed by horses on favoured grandstand rail and finished under its own steam, fading late to finish 4.5L back.

Why you should bet on Hong Kong racing

Bigger race betting pools than most punters have ever seen; more and better form data publicly available; small numbers of horses, tracks, jockeys and trainers to keep track of; tight control by international stewards; exotic bet dividends frequently in multi-millions - there are literally millions of reasons serious punters everywhere should be betting on Hong Kong horse races. Here are the facts. [continue reading]

Special report: stats throw light on dark horses

If you are tired of seeing long-priced winners with no apparent form upset your "good things", and you want to identify signs that may warn you when such upsets are likely to occur, RacingHK has prepared the report below in a bid to help you know the courses, track surfaces, race distances and classes where they are most likely to occur, and the trainers and jockeys most likely to be involved. As previously noted, many of these upsets involve young horses with only a few Hong Kong starts, whose odds have soared beyond reason because impatient Hong Kong race-goers want quick results and have abandoned them after a few below-average runs. Often such horses have taken time to settle in to Hong Kong's unique racing environment and are ripe for sudden improvement - particularly if they have shown good form before coming to Hong Kong. Identifying horses of this type and matching them with some of the stats below may well provide you with high-value bets on genuine chances. The stats suggest an ideal bet would be one of these young pattern horses in a class 4 race over 1400m on the Shatin turf, where the strike rate of long-shots this season has been 11 winners from 38 races (28.9%).

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