Long-shot wins become habit for OldMike

"OldMike", the RacingHK stalwart who won big when 63/1 longshot Rich Unicorn got up at Sha Tin on October 30, has done it again. At the New Year's Day meeting on Sunday he unloaded on Aashiq which led all the way to win race 10, The Chinese Club Challenge Cup over 1400m, at odds of almost 21/1, holding off a late challenge from Captain Sweet.He was not the only RacingHK member to spot the overlay on Aashiq - "Singapore Sam" rang in to admit that he had "a tidy win" on it, which included the 30/1 quinella. 

OldMike was happy to divulge the reasoning behind the coup: "I was having an average day until then, but I could not believe the odds on offer. Most punters believed that Captain Sweet was the horse to beat in the race, based on his win over course and distance on the day of the International Races in December.

 "But Aashiq led that race and held on to finish only two-and-a-quarter lengths behind Captain Sweet after setting a blistering pace. When everything was taken into account - the weight swing, the trips they had and the effects of the track bias - the figures said his run was at least as good as that of Captain Sweet. But the market had him at 20/1 and Captain Sweet at 5/2!"

RacingHK's Premium Form figures back up OldMike's analysis of the race. They show that in his Class 1 win on December 11, Captain Sweet sat 6L off the hot pace before charging to the lead 150m out, recording a personal pace figure of 112 and a total speed of 111. His PS (projected speed)  number for that run was 109. Aashiq's figures were: early pace 118, total speed 111, PS 110. 

As well as meeting Captain Sweet 5lbs better at the weights, 6YO Aashiq was having only his third run back after a break and was liable to improvement - bearing in mind he had recorded total speed figures of 114 and 115 last season. It could also be reasoned that Captain Sweet, a lightly raced 4YO was liable to "bounce" after his December 11 win, which was significantly better than he had done previously, and he was backing up just three weeks later.

The other factor in Aashiq's favour was the likely pacing of the race. In the December 11 contest he was taken on by Leading City for the first 200m, recording 13.3s for the section, before Leading City gave up and eased 1.5L behind him, though Aashiq still recorded a fast 21.06 for the second (400m) section. 

Leading City was also in the field on Sunday, but it made sense that having been burnt off by Aashiq in the previous run, he would be ridden more patiently this time. And so it proved, with Aashiq unchallenged and again speeding through the first 200m section in 13.25s but then allowed to slow the tempo to a leisurely 22.47s for the next 400m - 1.41s slower than it ran for the corresponding quarter in  December. 

Incidently, to put the early speed of Aashiq into perspective, its times in the 13.2s to 13.3s range for the first 200m of 1400m races are similar to what Silent Witness and company recorded for the first 200m of International Gr.1 contests over 1000m.

By the way, OldMike did not just back Aashiq to win. Having missed huge exotic dividends when Rich Unicorn won, he made no such mistake this time, hitting the quinella (31/1), quinella place (11/1 & 61/1), tierce (1433/1), and the race-to-race double with Fay Fay, winner of race 11 (75/1).