Tempo will let Cruz unleash real Champion

It was over a different distance on a different course more than seven weeks ago, but the result of the Group 2 Cathay Pacific Jockey Club Cup on November 20 points to Pure Champion as the one to beat in the featured January Cup over 1800m at Happy Valley tonight.

He started at 21/1 in that race but belied those odds to surge to the front at the 300m mark and fight of a determined challenge by Irian only to go down by a neck to late-comer Thumbs Up. It is history that Thumbs Up went on to take 2nd in the Hong Kong Vase over 2400m, while 3rd home Irian and 4th placed California Memory were respectively 2nd and 1st in the Hong Kong Cup over 2000m. Both of those races were international Group 1 events. 

One aspect of the November 20 race that bodes well for Pure Champion's chances tonight is that nearly half the field he faces finished well behind him in that race, namely Jacobee, Packing OK, Super Pistachio, Mighty High and Super Satin.

The expected pacing of tonight's race is also in Pure Champion's favour. He has shown he thrives best in races where the tempo is genuine, even fast. In November, four of his rivals on Wednesday - Jacobee, Packing OK, Super Pistachio and Mighty High - set a good tempo. And they will be joined by two other genuine on-pace runners, Sight Winner and Handsome Zulu, so the tempo may be even faster. 

For the record, the speed figures recorded by the in-the-money horses in the November 20 race were Thumbs Up 114, California Memory and Irian both 113, and Pure Champion 112. On Wednesday, Pure Champion will carry 3lbs less in the handicap, which adjusts his relevant speed figure to 113.

Three weeks after his good 2nd in November Pure Champion started in the Hong Kong Cup. In the absence of a true pace-setter he went to the front and led until well into the straight, eventually being beaten only 3L by California Memory. The sectional times he ran in that race tell an interesting story.

His time for the first 1200m up to the 800m pole was 78.47s, an extremely slow pace which compares with the 74.89s he ran over the same course in November when he raced in 6th position 4L off the good tempo set by some of his rivals tonight. While a slow tempo usually helps the chances of the leader, this was not the case in the Hong Kong Cup. Pure Champion did not run out of gas - he was still running on but just could not match the turn-of-foot of horses such as California Memory and Irian.  

With the strong tempo expected tonight it should be a difxferent story. The Tony Cruz-trained Mosse-ridden Pure Champion will likely be taken back from his wide draw and again settle about midfield or a little worse. But when tonight's on-pace runners start to tire he will be running on strongly all the way to the line and should win. 

Of the others, we can expect further improvement from Super Satin who showed he was emerging from his season-long slump when he finished 5th in Thumbs Up's November 20 race, recording a speed figure of 110, just three points worse than Pure Champion. He also will get back tonight and will be suited by a good tempo. 

Jacobee is an honest galloper and should figure in the finish, so long as he is ridden behind the early pace. Track Specialist Noble Conqueror will be well supported but the 9YO with10 Valley wins, including three over this distance, should be treated with a bit of caution, because most of his Valley wins were in slow-tempo races where his good late turn-of-foot won the day.