Champion RAnger e/w at 40s looks a bit of value here. That and Glory Win. Anyone else around at all?

Well it went quickly sideways!

Judging by the Race 1 results, the bias on the 1000m straight course as usual is favouring horses positioned on or close to the outside rail. 

In the second race over the course (Race 6) horses 2, 3, 4 , 12, 14 and maybe 11 should be in the best positions.

Hi Saddler. I'm here but keeping a low profile until I see how the track is racing. That was a strange ride by Champion Ranger....if I was looking at the right horse, he got back and then the jock took him for a bit of a wander out to the middle of the track at the back. Horse has impressive breeding, both speed and stamina....looks to be one to keep an eye on.

Hey Cargh. Bit of a compaint. Race 3 is one of the two free races today and is full of horses having their first or second starts. To give us free account people a chance to test the premium form properly could you pick more races where the horses have HK form? 

1 & 13 for me here. Glittering will be in my exotics to add value.

Hi Nemaluk, PlanB, Cargh.

1 & 13 for me here. Glittering will be in my exotics to add value.

Hi Nemaluk, PlanB, Cargh.

Don't no why that showed up twice.

Point taken PlanB. In future we will wait until after the fields are declared before choosing the free races. It will mean the free form will not be available for a few hours after declarations, but we will get it to you as quickly as possible.

Re Race 3 today, there are a couple of horses that may trap the unwary punter, especially Team Work which is a dead-set Happy Valley specialist. His speeds are equal to the best in this race, but his 19 runs at Shatin so far have yielded no wins, no 2nds and no 3rds - which explains why he was at 27-1 a short time ago. 

Hi everybody. Looks a fairly nice day despite all that rain. Did you see that the race 2 winner made his run through the pack close to the inside rail, and the leader Epee de Hua was able to keep on well despite racing on the rail in the straight. Looks like track may be free of bias in straight - for the early races at least. Here's hoping.

I think this fave wins so I'm opting out of race 3.

Don't no why that showed up twice.

Saddler, it apparently has something to do with the fact that there are two streams for comments into the forum - directly by accessing the Forum on the home page, and indirectly via the box at the bottom of the premium form. Duplicate entries seem to occur when you submit a comment via the premium form and then use the back arrow to go back a page. I'm not sure about all this so will pass it to our coder - who is in flight to Canada at the moment.

Good work with Newswire Too Sadler. Yes, Race 3 is either going to go the favourite way or to something unknown, so it is one to leave alone. 

As regards the other 1000m race (race 6), does anyone else share my opinion that Bullish King and Ultimate Winners are both vulnerable? Both of them have top-figure runs but have been disappointing at their latest starts and they are both early-speed horses that will take each other on. Since Bullish King is the short priced fav, there could be some value about others.

Damm it! I had planned to take the Q with Vivacissimo and Team Work, but made late decision to opt out. Paid $225.....so much for stats.

Ha Ha! I was lucky. I put my bet on Team Work to anchor Q and Qps BEFORE  I saw Cargh's words of wisdom. No offence Cargh. I value your comments.

Sorry if I steered you off Team Work Nem. It is always difficult to know whether to shut up about things like that and run the risk of seeing some people waste their money, or to speak up and run the risk of being wrong..as in this case.

In Rce 6 Nem, I can see Ultimate Winners as being vulnerable as its last two runs appear to show the big run 3 back took too much out of him, and he has not shown anything in his work to say he is coming back to that form. But I think it is too early to say Bullish King has bounced after its good run. He deserves another chance. Mind you, there are four or five good horses that will be sitting close behind those two leaders.

Heavy rain has started at Shatin. Started about 2.15pm.

I think Tres Magnifique may do better than expected, so including him with Sunny Sky and sneaking in Kensworth Kid although it is shorter than I was expecting.

Speaking of vulnerable favourites.. have a look at Common Goal in Race 5. The only thing it has going for it is that it has changed stables. On its figures it needs to find a couple of lengths just to be competitive. 

That was nice, but a shame Sunny Sky did nothing for me. A decent paying QP and didn't have the 11 in my DT. Close but no cigar.

Tres Magnifique!!! the name aptly describes your great picking HKSaddler. And Kensworth Kid as well. 30+ to 1 is going to be hard for us to beat today.

Keep up the good work. I admire anyone who can make sense of these middle distance races.

Thanks. I was looking for value rather than the winner and thought it would be better placed in this race than it's last couple. KK was merely asking why on earth Whyte agreed to get on this horse with its indifferent form. Thought it would be because he thought it was improving and he's a better judge of horse flesh than I ever will be. Could have been he owed the trainer a favour though.

Yers Saddler.. I second JDCoke's comments.
Did you notice that virtually every jockey steer out into the middle of the straight?. ...looks as though they are convinced a bias to horses away from the rail in the straight is developing. 

Found out about the double posting. I refresh the page to get other's posts. I think it must have resent the data one time I did it. That seems to be when I'm looking at the Enhanced Form view rather than the normal way.

They all did come wide, especially Dougie on KK.

Papas could be value with some decent wet form. Also will make it harder to stay the 1400m which if it's dry would be a little short for him. Think I'm just playing that each way, and maybe a couple of q qps with more favoured horses than Papas

RACE 5:    Class 4, 1400m and several 3 and 4 year old horses that have had only a couple of starts and may be ready to improve.  If I read Cargh's report on the most prolific patterns for long-priced winners right, that is the most successful pattern of all. And some of them have reasonable speed figures as well. I am talking about Theheroinmyheart, Spicy Siam and Jolly Good Champ, and will throw in 5YO Life of Beauty with them in my tierces.

dont know what countries you guys are  in, but in case you have no pictures or audio feed, the rain is still falling but is lighter than it was before race 4.

Commentators just say favourite Common Goal has been working and trialing well for new trainer.

Wow my value disapeared late.

and it did nothing anyway.

Did you see where Common Goal finished?  He was five wide round the bend and Prebble took him straigh out to the grandstand rail in the straight, and thats were he stayed. 

And the steady rain continues.....

The good thing about the rain-drenched track is that if all the jocks are going to make their runs wide from now on, none of them should be disadvantaged.

Similar to the attempt on Kensworth Kid in the previous. Looks like everyone will be getting wide from now on.

Lifeline Elite each way for me. Not too far off the rail. Could get a tow off Bullish King and have a little more left later on. Sort of like Castle Hero, buit drawn too wide probably. Zezao may also shock BK and Ultimate Winners.

Race 6 is very competitive.. I've settling on Zezao as my banker in tierce, trios and Qs, with Lifeline Elite and Hawthorne prominent among my other choices. got some roughies involved as well.

Nice winner but value soaked up again. Was expecting more than 10-1. A win's a win I suppose.

All first 3 hit late in the market. Someone somewhere probably won a lot.

Bewdy!!  Yes Yes! Yes! Got one at last. Stuck with my original assessment that both Ultimate Winners and Bullish King were vunlerable and left them both out of a big (for me) tierce bet. Thank God I threw in Winning Boy because of its great wet track form in NZ. Got tierce 10 times that's $87,000, and also got the quinella. I love those 1000m races.

Nice win. I missed the wet track form for Winning Boy until commentators mentioned it late. Still WP paid enough for me. Shame Castle Hero couldn't quite get in the frame.

Nice going Nem. I cannot remember you getting one like that before. Keep it up. You too Saddler... is that three winners you have had today?  Andthere is nothing wrong with 15/2 about a winner. Don't know why Zezao got so far back, was running on at the end but too late. Watch Castle Hero next run.. that trainer seldom scores with horses 1st up.

where are we celebrating tonight Nemaluk? 

Its a little Italian place in West End, Brisbane  PlanB. You are welcome, in fact you are all welcome.

Dont think I'll do anything more today... track deteriorating and i do not want to give the bastards any of my winning back! 

Good  attitude Nemaluk. Would love to join you tonight...but its the long, long, long drive home afterwards that worries me.

Im going for Sounds Excellent in 7th. 

I see the rain has stopped. 

It's about a 10 hour flight for me so probably have to give it a miss!

After missing the last race I'm looking for Chadwick to do a race to race double. Actually, I think Penglai Xianzi is vale each way. Also like Chater Way but worried about the wettish track.  I prefer Familists to Fat Choy so that's the play for me.

Nemaluk. Not tring to outdo you (OK, maybe I am), but got the race 6/7 double trio. Paid an amazing $138,340. Unbelievable because all the horses were very gettable on the figures. I am a bit stunned.

Cargh. What has happened to Old Mike, the guy who was landing all those big winners? This sounds like the sort of day he would be scoring in.

Nice win. Missed the 600k one earlier by one horse (the 2nd fav in 2nd leg).

That payout seems huge. In theory it should be 1957 * 19.4 plus 20% as there's only 1 takeout. That would be about 45k. Nice win. It shows how down the faves most punters in HK are when it comes to the ultra exotics.

Good work JD. Winning Boy was the only tricky one, and as you said, even he was gettable because of his good wet form overseas. 

PlanB, I have not heard from Old Mike for some months. He is 74 years old and told me he had met a "sprightly" 65 year old. So maybe she is wearing out his pacemaker. Isn't it a worry how the babes flock around a winner?

Come to think of it Nemaluk, Old Mike is in Brisbane. You two should get together.

Old Mike is 74....I am 24 still living in student digs.. its possible we move in different circles..... but thanks a lot Cargh.

About my turn for a win. I think the favourite will win, but the placings are open, and I am taking it with the 2 horse and the 14.

Saddler, I noted that $600,000 "near miss" you mentioned. Youj are having a good day, but it could have been a bonanza day. You will get one of those soon. It has been a while since we have a million dollar winner and those DTs and other exotic bets are the way to get them.

That will do! The favourite failed, but lukily I took the other two. Q paid $654 and I have it in an all up quinella with all combinations of horses 2, 3 and 4 in the last for $300 a line. By my calculations, that is nearly $20,000 going onto each combination. Cheer them home for me boys!

Great stuff Cargh. You deserve a good win. You guys out there may not realise how much work Cargh puts into keeping everything shipshape at racingHK. So much so that he often does not get much time to do his own form study. That Plentiful, Super Caga quinella was good picking.

I must be the only one not winning today. But not much damage. For sure I will be cheering your horses home in the last and will keep my fingers, any everything else crossed.

Thanks for telling us the combos you have live in the last leg Cargh. It gives me a strong interest in the race and I will be cheering them in the straight. By the way, why didn't you take the last double trio, on races 9 & 10. 

Thanks Rick, PlanB and Kidim..

The double trio... things you wish you had done.....

2nd and 4th... beaten by a first-starter. That was close Cargh. Hard luck.

Im a little horse.. at least my throat is.  Next time Cargh

Oh Well. Guess I will have to send back all those new computer parts I was mentally ordering.

Horse racing is full of stories of "near" wins, though that one was not very near as I completely overlooked the winner with no HK form. But it got my blood pumping there for a while, so that can be my exercise for the weekend.

Dont forget Frankel runs tonight in UK.