Our Early Speed ratings for races are based on the leaders' speed over the early sections. What each horse is required to do in that portion of the race determines how much energy it has for a finishing effort. Knowing the Early Speed demands on the horses we can use the records of what they did in similar past races to forecast which ones will have the energy and stamina to be there at the finish.

Hopefully, each horse's past record will include races where the early speed was the same, faster or within four (4) points of the projected early speed, which will show whether it can meet such demands and be competitive at the finish.

Procedure

• Switch back to the full view of past-performances by clicking on "Filter" and selecting "Full Form" from the drop-down menu. By default, the form guide shows the last six runs of each horse. If needed, use the "More Runs" filter to look deeper into the past performances.
• Starting from its most recent, find a run where the horse competed in a race where the Early Speed was within 4 points of what you expect it to be in the coming race. Note the Total-Speed rating it achieved in such a race. If it had several qualifying races, use the rating from the most recent in which the race distance was close to or the same as the distance of the coming race. Unless you have reason to expect the horse's form to improve (e.g it is young, has only had a few starts and is fitter), or to deteriorate (it is not as fit) then use that rating as a measure of what it can do in the coming race.

You will now have total speed ratings for all horses that have been tested at or near the tempo you expect in the coming race. Average the top two ratings among these horses and use the resulting number as the target rating for true contenders.

At this stage you can eliminate horses from this group whose Total-Speed ratings are more than four points below the target rating.

But what about horses that have never faced a race tempo at or near your projected tempo for the coming race? There are several scenarios for such horses.

• Those that have no runs in races where the early speed was close to your projected early speed, but have a competitive Total-Speed rating that was set in a slower race demand close inspection. (To be competitive, the rating should be within 4 points of the target rating mentioned above.) Horses of this type whose style is to run on from off the pace regularly improve their total speed ratings when dragged along behind a faster tempo - particularly if they are young and lightly raced. They must be included as contenders. But horses in this category that are on-pace style runners can be eliminated unless they won the previous race and so are possible improvers.
• The past form of a horse that led or raced on-pace in a race where the tempo was at least four points faster than your projected tempo for the coming race should be examined for any evidence to suggest it can improve its total speed if it does not have to exert itself so much in the coming race.
• Otherwise, horses with no competitive total-speed rating can be eliminated.

Further thoughts

Distrust a horse that set a competitive total-speed rating after leading without pressure at a slower tempo than you expect in the coming race. The extra pressure of having to compete at a higher early speed often brings such horses undone.