You now will have eliminated quite a few horses and have most of the remaining contenders ranked in order of their total-speed ratings. These rankings alone often identify many winners and place-getters, though we have done only about 85% of the analysis needed to fully handicap the race. The remaining 15% involves considerations such as the sort of trip each horse will have; how fit and ready each horse is; and whether a track bias is likely and how it will affect each horse.

Good and bad positions in running

Give serious thought to where your top-ranked contenders figure to be in running. It would be unwise, for example, to back your top horse in the race if its barrier draw and racing style means it will have to race wide and well back in the field on a day when on-pace horses near the rail are favoured.

To get an idea of each horse’s likely position in running we can refer to the Speed Maps supplied by the Jockey Club (insert link). These are based on barrier positions and each horse's past running styles and attempt to forecast the positions of horses after they have "settled" into a running order, usually about 300m after the start.

At many race distances these positions show where the horse is likely to be at the first bend of the race, so they help us identify which horses are likely to race wide.

In races around bends, horses positioned on the inside rail obviously travel a shorter distance than those positioned outside one, two or more horses. So, all else being equal, horses on the rail normally have an advantage. (As a rough guide, if you believe a horse will race one wide, i.e. outside one horse, around each of two bends in a sprint, for example, then you should deduct one point from its total speed rating. If it will be two wide round two bends, deduct three points, and for three wide deduct five points.)

In general in Hong Kong, on all tracks, horses positioned forward of midfield and no more than one wide are favoured. We might call that the "normal" bias.

You are now at a stage where you can make sensible betting decisions based on what you have decided above, so do not get unduly worried about other supposed aspects of bias or you may get yourself so confused you miss genuine betting opportunities.

That said, there are two situations you should be aware of

• Races down the straight 1000m course at Sha Tin notoriously favour horses positioned on or close to the grandstand rail, so high draws are best.
• A home-straight bias sometimes develops on the Hong Kong turf tracks, particularly for later races on the programme, which gives horses finishing in mid track or wider an advantage over those racing close to the rail.

Some days you will also hear people talk about a "pace" or "leader" bias, but more often than not these involve advantages leaders have because of their individual early-speed ability, rather than because of some track surface anomaly. The analysis you do in Steps 1 & 2 will reveal and deal satisfactorily with such cases.

Horse fitness

Horse fitness is of great importance: it is dangerous to bet on a horse - even if it is the top-ranked contender - if it is not fit enough to race up to its true ability. Your past performance analysis will have shown how the horses rate on ability, now you need to know which ones are fit.

One big advantage Hong Kong punters have is that morning trackwork of all horses is recorded and replayed nightly on Television. Every time a horse leaves its stable, whether to swim, trot, canter, gallop or trial, is also recorded and you will find these details in chronological order in our trackwork reports (insert link).

Also, for the benefit of overseas as well as local punters, our form guide reports how skilled trackwork watchers rate the current level of fitness and health of each horse. These can be found (insert link). As a final and important fitness check, punters are urged to listen to the race-day broadcasts which feature expert last-minute fitness assessments of each runner during the pre-race paddock parade.